"After many years of high-speed growth, China machinery industry stepped into a new stage of mid-speed growth in 2015. Economic operation situation of machinery industry had continued the trend of steady development in the fourth season in 2015 since this year. General operation indicators are better than the overall industry and better than that in the same period last year." said Chairman of China Machinery Industry Federation, Wang Ruixiang on 2015 News Conference of Top One Hundred in China Machinery Industry? Top 30 in Automobile Industry on the 26th.
Growth rising again
According to information, growth rate of accumulated added value of machinery industry from January to April is 7.8 percent; Main business revenue accumulated from January to March is RMB 5.25 trillion yuan, with year-on-year growth rate of 5.96 percent, and total amount of accumulated profits is RMB 337.75 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rate of 7.86 percent. Vice Chairman of China Machinery Industry Federation, Chen Bin expressed that seen from data about industry operation in the last quarter, industry growth started to rise again in early this year. Taking accumulated orders of key contact enterprises as an example, their growth rate turns from negative value to positive. From January to March, accumulated orders of key contact enterprises in machinery industry has increased by 4.43 percent on year-on-year basis, and by 13.67 percentage points compared with the growth rate in the same period the last year (-9.24 percent).
Seen from overall lists and ranking list of top 100 machinery enterprises and top 30 automobile enterprises, overall development of the enterprises is relatively stable. Chen Bin expressed that enterprise ranking on the list has barely changed, especially the top ten enterprises which basically maintained their original places except for minor adjustment of several enterprises; it fully indicates that the top 100 and 30 enterprises still have better development trend and powerful competitiveness. However, investment growth rate of machinery industry and growth rate of ordering of key contact enterprises are still in a low position, and import and export trend is still less optimistic; Proportion of products with declining output in machinery industry is still more than a half.
It is learned that most of the output-increasing products are those with weak periodicity, including hosting products and some spare parts closely related to consumption, people's livelihood, energy conservation and emission reduction, efficiency improvement and expenditure saving, and industrial upgrading, such as high-horsepower tractors, processing equipment after harvest, fodder producing equipment and instruments, etc in the agricultural machinery industry. Those with larger output decline include: I: typical investment products with strong periodicity characteristics, such as engineering machinery, trucks, heavy machinery, metallurgical machinery, petrochemical equipment, conventional power generation equipment, etc.; II: ordinary machinery products which have been outdated for a long time, such as general-purpose machine tools, AC motor, low-voltage electrical appliances, mutual inductor and rolling bearing.
Continuous trend of steady at low expected
"Currently, there are still challenges in China's machinery industry." said Chen Bin. On the one hand, domestic economy still goes down, and generally, machinery industry lags behind overall economic operation. Therefore, the weak trend of domestic market of machinery products will not be obviously improved within a short term. On the other hand, the global trading is growing slowly, and it is difficult to improve machinery export in a short term. Meanwhile, there are favorable factors of steady advancement in the machinery industry, and the macro policy environment is beneficial to adjust industry structure.
Currently, the state has issued a series of favorable policies for the industry. Relevant supporting policies of "Made in China 2025" have been issued successively, which indicates a definite direction of long-term direction for machinery industry. Chen Bin said that currently, the Federation is now actively studying and formulating three-year action plans for steady growth, structure adjustment, transformation and upgrading, and cost reduction and efficiency improvement and other policy measures for machinery industry, striving to promote both supply and demand, promoting demands, accelerating application, urging innovation, reinforcing shortcomings, adjusting structure, consolidating foundation, optimizing environment and improving efficiency to provide sound policy environment for machinery industry development and boost industry confidence.
About the trend of machinery industry in this year, Chen Bin said that since main indicators for growth rate of machinery industry reached a new slump in recent years, considering from the aspect of year-on-year basis, it will be beneficial for the main indicators to continue to rise this year.
"It is anticipated through synthetic judgment that machinery industry will continue the slow steady development trend in the last fourth season in 2016, and growth rate of main indicators will still be better than the entire industry and that in the same time last year. And export growth rate is expected to rise, and decreasing amplitude to narrow." said Chen Bin. Growth rate of added value of machinery industry all year round is about 5.5 percent and 3.5 percent for main business income and profits, and export growth rate is expected to be converted from negative value to positive.
Automobile industry expected entering the best period
In 2015, total business income of the top 30 automobile enterprises reached RMB 3.895 trillion yuan, increased by 1.61 percent on year-on-year basis, and growth rate is decreased by 8.92 percentage points on year-on-year basis. "There was a certain contingency for growth rate of production and marketing in automobile industry to slow down in last year." said Dong Yang, the Standing Vice Chairman of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Purchase restriction in large cities, export reduction, stock market fluctuation and some policies related to used-cars directly slowed down growth rate of production and marketing to 4 percent.
Dong Yang believes that the restriction factors of automobile industry growth are expected to be relieved through scientific development during the "13th Five-Year Plan". For auto pollution, China will refer to experience in developed countries for new automobiles, and implement discharge standards in the fifth stage; For traffic jam, construction urban road and parking facilities will be intensified, traffic management level will be improved and other adverse factors will be gradually relieved as automobile growth rate is gradually reduced to less than 10 percent; For energy tension, average fuel consumption of new passenger vehicles will be reduced by 28 percent according to the national Planning on Energy Conservation and New Energy Automobile Development. Dong Yang believes that with restricting factors being gradually changed and efforts made by automobile enterprises, China's automobile technology will be greatly improved. The market will not grow as slowly as it did in the last year, and the "13th Five-Year Plan" might be the best time for development of China's automobile industry.
According to analysis by insiders, China's automobile industry will gain a relatively complete modern automobile industry system; Self-owned brands will be greatly improved, and vehicles of self-owned brands will account for nearly 50 percent in the vehicle output of over 20 million; Consumers will be more mature, blind pursuit for joint venture brands will reduce, and recognition to self-owned brands will be improved. Meanwhile, the state will support the innovation center focused on foundation construction and study on generic technology of automobile industry within the framework of "Made in China 2025", which will provides a powerful support for China's automobile industry to solve technical weakness.
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